Daily Papers

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

Predicting the intermediate trajectories between an initial and target distribution is a central problem in generative modeling. Existing approaches, such as flow matching and Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching, effectively learn mappings between two distributions by modeling a single stochastic path. However, these methods are inherently limited to unimodal transitions and cannot capture branched or divergent evolution from a common origin to multiple distinct outcomes. To address this, we introduce Branched Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (BranchSBM), a novel framework that learns branched Schr\"odinger bridges. BranchSBM parameterizes multiple time-dependent velocity fields and growth processes, enabling the representation of population-level divergence into multiple terminal distributions. We show that BranchSBM is not only more expressive but also essential for tasks involving multi-path surface navigation, modeling cell fate bifurcations from homogeneous progenitor states, and simulating diverging cellular responses to perturbations.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Recent advances in generative modeling have demonstrated strong promise for high-quality point cloud upsampling. In this work, we present PUFM++, an enhanced flow-matching framework for reconstructing dense and accurate point clouds from sparse, noisy, and partial observations. PUFM++ improves flow matching along three key axes: (i) geometric fidelity, (ii) robustness to imperfect input, and (iii) consistency with downstream surface-based tasks. We introduce a two-stage flow-matching strategy that first learns a direct, straight-path flow from sparse inputs to dense targets, and then refines it using noise-perturbed samples to approximate the terminal marginal distribution better. To accelerate and stabilize inference, we propose a data-driven adaptive time scheduler that improves sampling efficiency based on interpolation behavior. We further impose on-manifold constraints during sampling to ensure that generated points remain aligned with the underlying surface. Finally, we incorporate a recurrent interface network~(RIN) to strengthen hierarchical feature interactions and boost reconstruction quality. Extensive experiments on synthetic benchmarks and real-world scans show that PUFM++ sets a new state of the art in point cloud upsampling, delivering superior visual fidelity and quantitative accuracy across a wide range of tasks. Code and pretrained models are publicly available at https://github.com/Holmes-Alan/Enhanced_PUFM.

We propose Terminal Velocity Matching (TVM), a generalization of flow matching that enables high-fidelity one- and few-step generative modeling. TVM models the transition between any two diffusion timesteps and regularizes its behavior at its terminal time rather than at the initial time. We prove that TVM provides an upper bound on the 2-Wasserstein distance between data and model distributions when the model is Lipschitz continuous. However, since Diffusion Transformers lack this property, we introduce minimal architectural changes that achieve stable, single-stage training. To make TVM efficient in practice, we develop a fused attention kernel that supports backward passes on Jacobian-Vector Products, which scale well with transformer architectures. On ImageNet-256x256, TVM achieves 3.29 FID with a single function evaluation (NFE) and 1.99 FID with 4 NFEs. It similarly achieves 4.32 1-NFE FID and 2.94 4-NFE FID on ImageNet-512x512, representing state-of-the-art performance for one/few-step models from scratch.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.